We're All Screwed

A co-worker of mine has been sending me articles about the 'oil peak' for the last couple of weeks. I'm been brushing him off as best as I could simply because I'm been so busy and plus the last thing I need is another reason to think we're all screwed.

Regardless my responses up to now have been the usual. Oil supply will diminish slowly and society will have the opportunity to make gradual changes to a more varied energy supply. Blah blah blah... more oil fields will be discovered so there is no need to worry about an oil shortage any time soon.

Anyways, I'm just bought a house and trying to determine a term for the mortgage got me thinking about the likelihood of the shit hitting the fan anytime in the next couple of years. Reading a few of these articles totally got me bummed out. Many of them are somewhat conspiratorial but put all together a few good points are made.

As an example. If radical Islamists really wanted to stick it to the world they would simply direct all their energies trying to toople The House of Saud. One well aimed shot and the world would be totally... well you know what I want to say. If Prince Abdullah was killed tonight we would wake up to a totally different world. First off, equity markets would fall faster than Wiley E. Coyote off of a cliff. If you think want happened in India yesterday was something you would be in for a surprise.

Add to this the added tensions due to countries trying to secure other supplies and we've got ourselves a very volitile world. China would most likely immediately try to grab supplies in central Asia and in the South China Sea. Of course Japan won't sit around waiting to be starved. There are so many other potential conflicts possible it isn't worth pointing them all out.

Plus the third world would be totally out on a limb. Most developement in the third world over the last decade has been due to developement of heavy industry and manufacturing both heavily dependent on cheap and stable supplies of oil. At least in the West we would still be able to spend more on energy and still be able to eat. The third world wouldn't have the luxury of making that choice.

Anyways every day gives me another reason to suspect the world is one tiny event from going ape-shit.

Thanks Tom. Much appreciated.