Election Analysis Of Ottawa South

Well since the election has officially been called I figure it would be a good idea to give a rundown of the situation in my home riding of Ottawa South.

Well the chart below gives the results from the election of 2000.

The NDP is fielding Monia Mazigh wife of Maher Arar who spent a year in a Syrian prison because of suspicions that he was in some manner connected to al-Qaeda. Either way I seriously doubt that her running will have any significant effect on the level of NDP support in the riding. Still, given that Paul Martin has taken the federal Liberal Party slightly left in relation to the policies of Jean Chretien, I suspect NDP support here will increase in proportion with that of the national party.

NDP 2004 % = 15%

I suspect that support to other 'frindge' parties will trend along the lines seen in 2000. Sorry to anyone included in this total, no insult is intended.

Other 2004 % = 3%

The remainder of the vote will be split between the Liberals and the Conservatives so the analysis of these two parties will be done together since anything that will affect one obviously has an effect on the other.

The totals from 2000 had Liberal support at 51% with the Canadian Alliance/ Progressive Conservative merged total being 40%. The most significant change in 2004 will of course be that the two 'conservative' parties here in Canada have now merged. I suspect that this won't have a significant effect in and of itself to affect the combined support for the new Conservative party. I say this because I suspect that the merged party would tend to attract a few more supporters. The principle of 'they have a hope' appling here. I figure that this would ammount to 1% or less of the total electorate. This slight increase though would probably be offset by some of the 'progressive' members of the old Progressive Conservative party moving to the Liberal or NDP camp.

The second change to have a major effect on the race in Ottawa South is that John Manley will not be running in 2004. Now I am personally very conservative in my politics but even I'll admit that John Manley wasn't all bad; in many ways I actually liked the guy. Regardless I suspect that many other closet conservatives felt the same way. The loss of John Manley will probably affect Liberal support in Ottawa South with a loss in the range of 2-4%. Four percent may seem high but it will be impossible to replace Manley's name recognition.

The third change to have a significant impact here in Ottawa South is that the Liberal nominee is David McGuinty, brother of Ontarians favorite Liberal, Premier Donald McGuinty. As many of you are probably aware, the provicial Liberals have just raised taxes here by a significant amount. This naturally does not bode well here for David. Kind of like putting on a 'deer suit' and then going for a jog in the woods. Not good.

So how do I see it all shaking out in Ottawa South. Well given the problems the federal Liberals have been having, plus the major factors affecting Ottawa South that I've mentioned, I feel comfortable predicting that the Conservatives will claim the seat for Ottawa South.

Conservatives 2004 % = 45%
Liberals 2004 % = 37%

Of course this can all change will major developements on either the local or national scenes in the weeks to come. But I suspect that with the Liberals getting squeezed from both the 'right' and the 'left', a change in Ottawa South is quite possible if not outright likely. Remember that if the Liberals shed 3-4 percent from its left and right leaning bases of support, the race will become a statistical dead heat.

The only real unknown that I see in my analysis is that NDP support may not increase as I suspect. If a significant number of NDP supporters vote Liberal solely to prevent a Conservative win than that of course would change the dynamics of the race. I'll feel a bit more confident with my NDP numbers in a week or two. There is a general feeling out there that NDP support is bound to increase in 2004. Jack Layton has done a good job sounding like a reasonable politician but the key is if he can keep it up. If the NDP reverts to its old habits then things could quickly unravel for them.

Anyways, that's it for today.

Good luck to all the canadidates... now release the hounds!