Europe's Future

The American Enterprise Institute has the text of a speech by Niall Ferguson titled The End of Europe?

The speech basically discusses the potential for future conflict and/or tensions between the E.U. and the U.S. His argument is that these concerns are misplaced because Europe's future is one of decline and stagnation (Is that contradictory?).

On the economic side he points out the stark differences between what Germany contributes to the E.U. and the proportion of votes it receives. He makes the logical point that this contrast cannot last forever and that Germany at some point will turn off the spiget. Will France be as receptive to continuing with E.U. integration without Germany footing the bill? Not likely.

Anyways he makes various points concerning economics, population changes, etc... plus he touches on the subject that Europe is a post-Christian union.

He says:

Ladies and gentlemen, I only wish that were true. The reality is--and it is perhaps the most striking cultural phenomenon of our times--that Western and Eastern Europe are no longer in any meaningful sense Christian societies. They are quite clearly post-Christian--indeed, in many respects, post-religious--societies. In the Netherlands, Britain, Germany, Sweden, and Denmark, less than 1 in 10 of the population attends church even once a month. A clear majority do not attend church at all. There are now more Muslims in England than Anglican communicants. More Muslims attend mosque on a weekly basis than Anglicans attend church. In the recent Gallup Millennium Survey of Religious Attitudes conducted just a couple of years ago, more than half of all Scandinavians said that God did not matter to them at all. This, it seems to me, makes the claim to a fundamental Christian inheritance not only implausible but also downright bogus in Europe. The reality is that Europeans inhabit a post-Christian society that is economically, demographically, but, in my view, above all culturally a decadent society.

He doesn't really expand much else on the above statement. I believe he should have because I think the idea that Europe is post-Christian in many ways leads to the problems that he mentions earlier in his speech.

As post-Christian nations, Europe does not have the confidence or fortitude to deal with difficult issues either within its own borders or elsewhere in the world. I know that you can give all kinds of non-Christian nations or peoples who deal successfully with the modern world but cultures are a difficult thing to quantify and understand. The history of cultures is one of rise and fall. When vibrant/creative/hopeful they thrive and influence those around them. When they lose these qualities, they retract, become decadent, and care little for the future. I believe that Europe has passed through this stage. After fighting WWI and WWII, it lost hope. With a loss of hope, came gradually decreasing populations. With a decreasing poplution the economy shrinks. Simply put, modern economics can not deal with a shrinking population in a large economic unit (If anyone knows of any research in this area I'ld be interested if you pointed me in its direction).

Anyways, I think Europe is in the midst of a radical transformation on a scale not seen since the times of the Roman Empire. These are interesting times in which we live.