Predictions for 2004 Canadian Elections

Every couple of weeks I will be posting what I expect to be the results for the 2004 federal election. Be warned that none of this is scientific so don't go out and plan your financial and tax strategies based on my predictions. This is only for my own amusement and to hopefully provide a means of stimulating discussion.

Every week or two, or whenever I deem it appropriate, I will provide an update on my predictions for the election. If I make any changes I will also provide an explanation of why the change was made.

So here goes this weeks predictions...


These numbers are based on the results from the 2000 federal election with the following adjustments:

1) An increase in NDP support due to Paul Martin's perceived move to the right on fiscal matters.
2) A slight decrease in support for the Bloc Quebecois but not as much as many would expect.
3) I combined the totals of the 2000 election for the old Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties. I factored in a slight decrease to this combined total since the leadership convention for the merged party has the potential to turn into a circus if Conservative members aren't careful.
4) The Liberals got whatever was left over.

Any thoughts out there?